
The Academy Awards are this Sunday, Feb. 24, saved from disaster by the recent end to the writers' strike, so I'm back with my predictions and personal preferences. I'm looking forward to seeing this year's telecast, hoping that the short amount of time for the writers will result in a looser, more free-wheeling broadcast and some improv from host Jon Stewart. I'm even somewhat excited to see some of the musical performances too, namely seeing
Enchanted star Amy Adams perform "Happy Working Song" and Broadway veteran (and
Pushing Daisies star) Kristin Chenoweth take on "That's How You Know" from that film. And any chance to see Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova sing the lovely and touching "Falling Slowly" from
Once is okay by me. Actually I would have killed to see Hugh Grant and Scott Porter dance through "PoP! Goes My Heart," the hilariously cheesy (but catchy) retro-pop concoction from
Music and Lyrics, but alas, it was robbed of a nomination. Ah well. On to the picks. As I've said in a previous column, it was a great year for movies, so I actually haven't gotten a chance to see a few of the nominated films, so I'll indicate which ones those are. Here we go.
(*) indicates a film/performance I haven't seen
Best DirectorPaul Thomas Anderson,
There Will Be BloodJoel and Ethan Coen,
No Country for Old MenTony Gilroy,
Michael ClaytonJason Reitman,
JunoJulian Schnabel,
The Diving Bell and the ButterflyAfter years in the business and having won an Oscar for writing, the Coen brothers have landed only their second Best Director nomination (after
Fargo, though only one of them, Joel, was allowed the nomination). It seems like this is their year, as they collected most of the major critics' prizes for their most ambitious film ever, as well as the prestigious Director's Guild award, historically a near-guarantee for Oscar victory. Anderson snagged a few of the critics' awards, but probably not enough. Schnabel managed to steal the Golden Globe for the undeniably visual
Diving Bell, but his film wasn't nominated for Best Picture, so it's very unlikely.
Prediction: Joel and Ethan Coen
Preference: Julian Schnabel
Should've been nominated: Tim Burton,
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet StreetBest Supporting ActressCate Blanchett,
I'm Not There *Ruby Dee,
American GangsterSaoirse Ronan,
AtonementAmy Ryan,
Gone Baby GoneTilda Swinton,
Michael ClaytonThis is probably the toughest category of the night to call, as all five actresses have at least a fighting chance. I'm gonna go ahead and discount Ronan, as she's only 13 and her film seems to have lost a lot of momentum recently. For a long time, it seemed as if this was a two-person race between Blanchett's uncanny Bob Dylan impersonation in
I'm Not There and Ryan's fierce performance as an entirely unsympathetic mother to an abducted girl in
Gone Baby Gone, as they split most of the major critics' awards. Blanchett seemed to take the lead with her Golden Globe win, but Ruby Dee threw a wrench into everything by surprising everyone with her Screen Actor's Guild upset. Swinton has gained momentum recently too, with her win at the BAFTA (Britain's Oscars) and remains
Michael Clayton's best shot at an Oscar. It's mostly guesswork at this point, but I'm thinking Oscar will want to reward the legendary career of 83-year-old Dee (as well as her late husband, fellow legend Ossie Davis), despite being in
Gangster for maybe 5 whole minutes. Blanchett won this award only 3 years ago, and theater veteran Ryan is new to the scene, playing an unlikeable character. But again, mostly just guessing here.
Prediction: Ruby Dee
Preference: Amy Ryan
Should've been nominated: Jennifer Garner,
Juno
Best Supporting ActorCasey Affleck,
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford *Javier Bardem,
No Country for Old MenPhilip Seymour Hoffman,
Charlie Wilson's WarHal Holbrook,
Into the Wild *Tom Wilkinson,
Michael ClaytonBardem owns this category, having created one of the most memorable villains in screen history, with his terrifyingly creepy psychopath Anton Chigurh earning comparisons to Hannibal Lecter and Darth Vader. He's won pretty much every major precursor so far (SAG, Golden Globe) and is the heavy favorite to win. The only possible upset I can see is from 82-year-old Holbrook, who may benefit from that respected veteran advantage that Ruby Dee has, although his claim isn't as strong, and Bardem has likely pulled way too far ahead.
Prediction: Javier Bardem
Preference: Javier Bardem
Should've been nominated: Ben Foster,
3:10 to Yuma
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age *
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages *
Ellen Page, Juno
This is another tough category to call. Veteran British actress Julie Christie (Doctor Zhivago, Heaven Can Wait, Afterglow) won this award for the first and only time 42 years ago for Darling, and has been selective with her projects in the years since. Her role as an Alzheimer's sufferer in Away from Her has garnered her numerous critics prizes and accolades (including the Golden Globe and the SAG) which would seem to make her the frontrunner. It could be argued, however, that her role is more of a supporting one, opening the door for her closest competition, Marion Cotillard, who's transformative performance as French singer Edith Piaf has netted her a fair share of prizes as well. And it's possible that vote-splitting between the two frontrunners could allow rising star Ellen Page to sneak in and steal the victory, Adrien Brody-style. Blanchett and Linney are just along for the ride. I don't feel all that strongly about it, but I'm still going with Christie to take this one. Cotillard's performance is all in French, Page is probably too young, and Christie is a well-respected throwback to old Hollywood, which the Academy loves.
Prediction: Julie Christie
Preference: Marion Cotillard
Should've been nominated: Amy Adams, Enchanted
Best Actor
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah *
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Anyone defeating Daniel Day-Lewis' searing performance in There Will Be Blood would be an upset of monumental proportions. He gave one of the best performances of this or any year and has won pretty much every award there is to win so far. He's an insanely respected actor who only picks a project every few years or so, always turning in award-worthy stuff. He's won once before (for My Left Foot) and has miraculously only been nominated two other times (In the Name of the Father, Gangs of New York). His classy tribute to Heath Ledger at the SAG awards only helped I'm sure. I've heard rumblings that Clooney could stage the upset, but I don't buy it.
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis
Preference: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should've been nominated: Gordon Pinsent, Away from Her
Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
This is No Country's to lose, as the Coen brothers' masterwork has won almost all the major precursor awards to this point (SAG, Director's Guild, Producer's Guild). Really the only thing that could stop it's momentum now would be awards fatigue, with voters possibly not wanting to bother voting for a film that's been the front runner for so long. Michael Clayton could pull the upset; it's a serious, traditional message movie with a big star at the center, but it's won nothing up till now. There Will Be Blood has been hailed as an epic masterpiece by many, but it has a very polarizing effect on people: they love it or they hate it. Juno made the most money out of all the nominees (usually a plus) and has easily had the most mainstream/crossover appeal, but it may be viewed as too lightweight. Atonement probably stands the poorest chance (despite snagging the increasingly less relevant Golden Globe), as it has lost a lot of steam down the stretch since it's original status as a favorite back in August. So it looks like No Country will likely take the prize, with Michael Clayton being the best (but still slim) hope for an upset.
Prediction: No Country for Old Men
Preference: No Country for Old Men
Should've been nominated: Once, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
See you at the Oscars!